Reports from Climate Change conference show significant advances in reducing emissions by the United States. This conference was a turning point for Climate change in several ways.
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At Climate Change Conference
200 Nations Agree to Transition Away from Fossil Fuels.
For the first time since nations began meeting three decades ago to confront climate change, diplomats from nearly 200 countries approved a global pact that explicitly calls for “transitioning away from fossil fuels” like oil, gas and coal that are increasing levels of carbon in the atmosphere and dangerously heating the planet.
The sweeping agreement, which comes during the hottest year in recorded history, was reached on Wednesday after two weeks of furious debate at the United Nations climate summit in Dubai. European leaders and many of the nations most vulnerable to climate-fueled disasters were urging language that called for a complete “phaseout” of fossil fuels. But that proposal faced intense pushback from major oil exporters like Saudi Arabia and Iraq, as well as fast-growing countries like India and Nigeria.
In the end, negotiators struck a compromise: The new deal calls on countries to accelerate a global shift away from fossil fuels this decade in a “just, orderly and equitable manner,” and to quit adding carbon dioxide to the atmosphere entirely by midcentury. It also calls on nations to triple the amount of renewable energy, like wind and solar power, installed around the world by 2030 and to slash emissions of methane, a greenhouse gas that is far more potent than carbon dioxide in the short term.
While past U.N. climate deals have urged countries to reduce emissions, they have shied away from explicitly mentioning the words “fossil fuels,” even though the burning of oil, gas and coal is the primary cause of global warming.
“Humanity has finally done what is long, long, long overdue,” said Wopke Hoekstra, the European commissioner for climate action. “Thirty years — 30 years! — we spent to arrive at the beginning of the end of fossil fuels.” [New York Times was the principal source for these stories]
Oil companies are planning for increases in oil production despite advances in reducing fossil fuel emissions. The tension will remain as long as profit is the driver in economic development.
U.S. makes significant changes at UN Conference
Vice President Kamala Harris pledged at the United Nations Climate summit in December 2023 that the United States would spend billions more to help developing nations fight and adapt to climate change. And, she told world leaders that “we must do more to limit global temperature rise.”
Harris also reported on a major breakthrough in the U.S. In the future, the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) will require oil and gas producers to detect and fix leaks of methane. Methane is a greenhouse gas that waifs into the atmosphere from pipelines, drilling sites and storage facilities, and exacerbates global warming in the process.
Environmental activists criticized Biden for not doing more, but failed to recognize the limits of their options with an uncooperative Republican Congress. This reduction in methane and carbon emissions is accomplished through Executive Order, independent of congressional action.
It would prevent 58 million tons of methane emissions by 2038.
The Environmental Defense Fund President supported this policy change as “the most impactful climate rule that has ever been adopted.” The rule would strengthen EPA’s authority to crackdown on methane leaks from oil wells and refineries and factories. This change brings the U.S. to the frontier of climate science and economics. The rule gives EPA more stringent regulations that can survive a future change in administrations.
What else can be done? As usual at these annual conferences, the projections for curbing global warming by the end of the decade are discouraging. What is not discussed is the accelerator factor when nations have a breakthrough and work together to meet goals to prevent average temperatures from increasing beyond 1.5 degrees Celsius.
At these conferences, the noise of critics often commands attention of the media. And like smoke, it obscures progress that is hard to find even in peaceful times when nations worked together to meet commitments made in the Paris Accords.
- Emissions from the major economic sectors of electricity and transportation are projected to start declining by the end of this decade when the United States, China and Europe stop using coal-fired power.
- Electric vehicles now consist of 20% of global car manufacturing. Batteries are having a significant effect on transportation worldwide. In Africa and Asia, smaller electric motorcycles and rickshaws are displacing older models, saving nearly one million barrels of oil per day.
- Long-distance trucks, airplanes and ships need alternatives which are likely to be solved in part by advanced nuclear reactors, improved batteries, and clean hydrogen fuels. These possibilities are not a factor in the projections, as the timing of implementation remains uncertain.
A closer look at projections about climate by mid-century mainly considers technologies, but it fails to factor in political changes made, such as Biden’s EPA proposal.
These projections ignore changes in economics, politics and demographics that will eventually accelerate change as the tipping point arrives. For example, there is much that can be done to make buildings more efficient. Coal, oil, natural gas are currently used as heating and cooking fuels, but incentives can be provided to install heat pumps, hybrid water heaters, and other alternatives.
Manufacturing of cement and steel projections never showed how they change emissions, until they make the breakthroughs. Car manufactures are continuing to use more plastic than steel in car production, but it does not show up in climate projections even though it will bring significant change to the car manufacturing sector over time.
Significant changes in Europe and United States in manufacturing can gradually be adopted by India, China, Southeast Asia and Africa as these areas increase both manufacturing and population. Now these efficiencies can be available in more populated countries at reduced cost.
Another overlooked report found that improvements in crop technology and farming practices are making farming more productive and increasing crop yields. Growing more food on less ground is significant as droughts and flooding are affecting food production in many areas, including the U.S.
In Pierce County, Tahoma Audubon is promoting a tree planting plan to increase carbon sequestration. Lakewood’s new tree ordinance may increase tree canopy enough to offset an increase in carbon emission over the coming decade.
Just before the climate change conference, the Pierce County Council updated their Climate Resilience Plan. It outlined how changes can be made locally in transportation and the environment to meet the state’s goals to reduce carbon emissions by the end of the decade.
Oil companies forecast growth in oil production.
There is a real irony in Climate Change Reports from leading countries like Norway and Britain which reduced emissions but at the same time are planning to increase fuel production by 2030. This is true in the U.S. where we will drill for more oil and gas in 2030 than at any point in our history.
The U.S. is now the leading oil producer pumping beyond our needs to reduce price of oil in other countries. This is dangerous. If the demand for oil increases, the world temperature will exceed 2.0 degrees. U.N. Secretary Antinio Guterras said : we can not address the climate catastrophe without tackling its root cause – fossil fuel dependence.”
The world already has several good examples of countries that have successfully moved away from oil and gas. However, here too is the irony. Norway has phased out fossil fuels for its energy needs but remains one of the major exporters. So to with Britian. They’ve cut oil by 46% of their emissions from 1990 levels, but offshore they are granting hundreds of oil and gas licenses in the North Sea.
The problem here is that other countries need capital investment to reduce their emissions, so it will take decades for them to transition off of oil and gas to run their economy and continue to grow.
Barkley Investments research analysis showed the amount of investment in renewals, world wide, is necessary to reduce carbon emissions and trigger the reduction of the demand for oil and gas. It shows a path forward about which sectors would be profitable. It did not guess on when the wealthier countries would complete their transition to renewable and begim to export their investments and technology to the Southern Hemisphere.