by Kirk Kirkland
Ten years ago, in a conference hall on the outskirts of Paris the leaders of almost every country agreed to try to slow down global warming. The new idea was for each country to set its own targets to reduce climate pollution in ways that made sense for them. So, here we are at the tenth anniversary and the question is, have we succeeded in keeping the world from getting warmer and how much have we accomplished?
Considering that all goals were voluntary and agreement on how to fund the changes was so hard to get, we’ve actually done remarkably well. Every country remains committed to the Paris Agreement, except one. That would be the United States, which is undergoing a remodeling of the White House and of the country’s economy which appears to be orchestrated by a mad man.
While the conference is going on in Brazil and the complainers are saying how hot it is going to be, let’s just take a look at what we’ve done. Of course it is not enough, but it shows that as the flooding and the droughts and hurricanes and tornadoes get worse, we’re doing the best we can. It remains a volunteer system.
The right question is: are we close to the point of acceleration, when the sum total of all our successful changes begins to accelerate and there is a huge decline in emissions and carbon sequestering because we reached a tipping point.
Which issues are most likely to accelerate and what can we do in our own country to cool summers and reduce carbon emissions?
1. Emissions are still rising, but we are making progress.
If countries stick to current policies, the global average temperature is projected to rise by 2.5 to 2.9 degrees Celsius by the end of the century. That’s a significant improvement. In 2015, scientific models said we were on track to increase the global average temperature by up to 3.8 degrees Celsius.
The problem remains that the world’s biggest emitters — China, the U.S., the European Union, India —have actually met their Paris promises. How did the U.S. manage this when our president has twice dropped out of the Paris Accords?
Well, there are nine Blue States that are the economy of the United States and California’s governor showed up at this year’s Conference and said: we are still here.
2. Solar is spreading faster than expected.
Solar power has been the largest source of new electricity generation for the last three years. China is and Chinese companies are making so much surplus solar equipment (cells, modules and everything that goes into them that prices have plummeted.
Forecasts keep underestimating solar growth.
Travel in Germany and you find solar panels cover the roofs of many houses in most villages and towns. Solar and onshore wind projects offer the cheapest source of new electricity generation.
In India’s electricity sector, more than half of the generation capacity now comes from solar, wind and hydropower. The economy is driving this number and it’s about people being able to buy inexpensive electric utilities.
3. Electric vehicles flood the market.
At the Paris Agreement 10 years ago, Tesla had just unveiled its luxury electric SUV. Now worldwide, one in five cars sold is electric. In the United States, 265,000 children ride electric buses to school. Count the number of electric bikes on the Puyallup Trail. They’re taking over. Chinese carmakers are assembling E.V.s abroad, including in Brazil, Indonesia and soon, in Saudi Arabia.
Electrifying transportation is doing the most to reduce emissions because it’s one of the biggest sources of emissions globally. Currently, electric vehicles are displacing 2 million barrels of oil demand per day, roughly equal to Germany’s total daily demand, according to Bloomberg
A new technology for electric cars will be marketed in a couple of years. The old technology is being leased to buyers for less than car payments on a new gasoline powered car. Here again the market is making a difference by lowering car emission before members of the Climate Conference can agree on the next goal and which countries will achieve it.
The use of electric cars and bikes has accelerated. It has a direct impact on reducing carbon emissions. Is it enough to prevent further increase in global warming? We’ll have to wait for next year’s conference to know. But if you have a chance buy an electric bike or car, this is the way to contribute to lowering emissions.
4. Coal is still being sold to China.
For over 10 years the Sierra Club made a serious dent in closing coal plants in the U.S. and converting them to more efficient sources of electricity. Other countries have as well, and growth of coal use is slowing worldwide. This matters — as coal is the dirtiest fossil fuel of them all.
Coal use is waning in wealthy countries and in the United States. That’s right, President Trump has failed to expand its use. Britain closed its last coal plant in 2024. Now, more than half of Britain’s electricity comes from electric renewables.
Coal is still needed in China. They are building more coal plants than any other country. Go count the trains with coal cars as the trains roar through the town of Steilacoom several times a day. The environmental community and the Washington State Governor stopped the coal miners from using Washington State ports, but our neighbor Canada, is shipping coal mined in the Western U.S. to China every day.
In America, coal demand fell faster than expected. But in China it’s growing. There is not much more citizens here can do.
5. Natural gas use is increasing in America.
Since the Paris Agreement, the United States has become the world’s leading producer and exporter of natural gas. This has been helped by an export boom in liquid natural gas (LNG).
Who’s to blame? Might be Mr. Trump, in his second term. The newly appointed U.S. Secretary of Energy has used the sale of American gas as a diplomatic and trade cudgel. Although gas is cleaner than coal as a source of electricity, it spreads a much needed infrastructure that will lock the world into gas use for decades to come.
6. The world’s forests are absorbing less carbon dioxide.
Forest Fires are increasingly driving the loss of forest worldwide. Rising temperatures and more intense droughts are making forests burn more easily. And then there’s the problem of setting fire to forests to clear land for agriculture in Brazil.
The loss of forests is pushing parts of the Amazon rainforest to a startling tipping point. Rainforests, called the lungs of the planet are losing ground. In Australia’s rainforest they are now releasing more carbon than the trees and soil can absorb.
Collectively, looking at the graphs that measure the increase or decrease of many of these resources on the website for the Climate Change Conference, you can see that the graphs are showing trends that we are making progress in several essential areas.
Unfortunately progress is coming slowly in many areas while the temperatures worldwide are still rising. We are still waiting for the year when scientists begin to see a steady decrease.
In the end, the significant changes in statistics are going to come from the nations in the Western Hemisphere. Right now leaders of the largest economies are going to decide the fate of the planet in the next several national elections.
Car emissions will go down when more people drive electric cars and when the government decides on a higher standard for diesel trucks. Our local forests will stop burning when we recharge the aquifers and raise the ground water in our urban areas by capturing the increase in rain in the winter months.
The statistics from the annual Climate Change Conference are helpful to see what is successful and where we should place our votes and our dollars to cool the planet. In the U.S. we can see the progress in Climate Change when we notice how our neighbors update their home heat. Do they choose to heat with solar, or heat exchanger, instead of natural gas?
We can decide in favor of the planet by being careful with what we buy. Like the countries at this years Climate Conference, we are volunteers. The pressure on us to reduce our carbon impact is significant, but the economy and whether you have a job is going determine how you can contribute.