In five days, delegations from around the world will convene in Baku, Azerbaijan for the annual United Nations climate summit, called COP29. The Biden administration is widely expected to try to assure the rest of the world that states and local governments in the United States will continue the work of slashing emissions if the federal government turns away.
Mr. Trump is expected to withdraw the United States from the 2015 Paris climate agreement. His allies are exploring whether Mr. Trump could also remove the country from the underlying treaty that allows the U.S. to take part in global climate negotiations.
Mr. Trump’s zeal to repeal the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act may not work in red states; the climate law is pouring more than $390 billion into electric vehicles, batteries and other clean energy technology. It will soon face a political test.
Roughly 80 percent of the money spent so far has flowed to Republican congressional districts, where lawmakers and business leaders want to protect that investment and the jobs they bring.
Also, in November election voters in states approved policies to fight climate change, setting up tension between states that want to accelerate climate action and Trump’s desire for chaos.
In Washington State, voters upheld an ambitious new law to force polluters to cap their fossil fuel emissions. In California, voters backed a ballot initiative to create a $10 billion “climate bond” for climate and environmental projects.
“No matter what Trump may say, the shift to clean energy is unstoppable and our country is not turning back,” said Gina McCarthy, President Biden’s former climate adviser who now helps lead America Is All In, a coalition of elected leaders, community groups and businesses promoting climate policies. She called any attempt to overturn the Inflation Reduction Act “a fool’s errand.”
Former Vice President Al Gore urged climate advocates to keep fighting. “We know the line to solutions is never straight or easy,” he said. “But we have won major victories in tackling the climate crisis and reducing climate pollution in our country, and we will again.”
States will likely become a bulwark against federal efforts to undo climate policy. “The locus of climate action is going to shift to the states,” said Martin Lockman, fellow at the Sabin Center for Climate Change Law at Columbia University.
“Unless there is a complete reversal of the Inflation Reduction Act, this is something where climate issues, even in red states where they won’t say the word ‘climate,’ the impact on the ground is undeniable.”
Mr. Trump’s election comes at a crucial moment in the global effort to fight climate change. Scientists say that by 2030, major economies must reduce their greenhouse gas emissions 50 percent from 2005 levels to avoid tipping into a world wracked by devastating impacts from warming, including famine, displacement, drought, and extreme heat and storms.
Under Mr. Biden’s policies, the U.S. has been on pace to cut 40% of its emissions by 2030.
During his first term in his office, Mr. Trump’s administration rolled back more than 100 major environmental rules and regulations, including every major Obama-era climate regulation. He withdrew the U.S. from the 2015 Paris climate accord, under which 195 nations had committed to work together to reduce planet-warming fossil fuel pollution.
Mr. Biden spent four years restoring, expanding and strengthening those protections. He rejoined the Paris agreement and pledged to the world that the U.S., historically the world’s largest fossil fuel polluter, would be a reliable leader in tackling climate change.
Mandy Gunasekara, who served as chief of staff to the Environmental Protection Agency administrator during the first Trump administration, said career employees should “be prepared for structural changes” at the agency.
As for tackling climate change, which has been a priority for the E.P.A. under the Biden administration, Ms. Gunasekara said, “It’s not going to be a source of hyperbole, but it will likely be one of many environmental issues the agency is working to reasonably address.”
Laurence Tubiana, France’s former climate ambassador and one of the architects of the Paris agreement, insisted that the Paris accord “is stronger than any single country’s policies.”
She said that in the nine years since the agreement was signed, many nations have heavily invested in solar, wind, nuclear and other non-carbon forms of energy. There is economic momentum behind renewable power, and by spurning it, the U.S. would risk forfeiting its future.
NOTE: Information for this article came from several stories in the New York Times published the week of November 6, 2024