Opinion Polls Show Dramatic Change Coming to Congress

By Kirk Kirkland

Your mail-in ballot has been delivered, and it is time to join the political revolution heading to Congress this November. Make sure your vote is counted so you can participate in this historic election.

A midterm change of leadership in the U.S. Congress is a common reaction when voters feel lawmakers are failing to address their concerns. Continuing an unpopular conflict deepens the public’s desire for new leadership, as reflected in the current president’s low approval ratings.

According to a recent opinion poll from Siena College, presidential approval has reached a new low, driven down by broad voter dissatisfaction with the economy, foreign conflict, and high gas prices. In the poll, only 36% of voters approved of the president’s performance, while 59% disapproved. More than two-thirds of independent voters disapproved of his job performance.

History suggests major shifts could be on the horizon. Since Richard Nixon took office in 1969, all nine subsequent presidents have experienced a midterm or general election where the opposing party took control of at least one chamber of Congress (House or Senate).

The political landscape remains challenging for the president’s party amid widespread dissatisfaction with economic conditions. In the Siena poll, 69% of voters disapproved of the handling of the cost of living, 65% disapproved of the handling of foreign conflicts, and nearly three-quarters disapproved of gas prices, which remain above $4 a gallon across much of the country.

However, competitive races mean nothing is guaranteed. Democrats face steep challenges to flip seats in traditionally Republican-leaning states—including Texas, Iowa, Alaska, and Ohio—which Donald Trump won by double digits in 2024. Other polls confirm that candidates from both parties remain locked in tight contests across several key Senate battlegrounds.

Despite these headwinds, public perception of the Democratic Party has improved on several key measures over the last two years. The Siena Poll—conducted by the Siena Research Institute at Siena College, widely regarded as a gold standard in political polling—shows a majority of likely voters now view the Democratic Party as the party of the working class. That represents a significant shift from 2022, when voters gave Republicans the edge on that question.

Voters also view Democrats as more likely to keep their promises, reversing an advantage held by Republicans two years ago. By a 15-point margin, more voters trust the Democratic Party to tackle the cost of living—the single most important issue to voters. Democrats also hold an 8-point lead on managing the economy and have expanded their lead on foreign policy and artificial intelligence.

Local elections matter just as much as federal ones. The Pierce County Council and the Washington State Legislature are considering legislation to regulate the growth and impacts of AI data centers in Pierce County and across the state. Our local representatives need your vote to secure the majorities required to pass these measures when the legislative session begins in January.

 

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